deworm the world givewell

In short, fixing the coding error does not much affect estimates of the externality within 3 km of treatment schools, but does significantly change estimated externalities between 3 and 6 km out, and following the original Miguel and Kremer 2004 process for synthesizing those estimates into an overall estimate of the cross-school externality on worm prevalence, the resulting figure is not statistically significant. The Global Fund to fight AIDS, TB, and Malaria is paying for the other non-net costs of the distribution. 1) a July 2015 grant from GiveWell for about $333,000 was misallocated within Imperial College, which houses SCI, until we noticed it was missing from SCI’s revenue in March 2016; and (2) in 2015, SCI underreported how much funding it would have from other sources in 2016, leading us to overestimate its room for more funding by $1.5 million. The post Journalists report on deworming program supported by Deworm the World Initiative in Kenya appeared first on The GiveWell Blog. Lack of compelling evidence is not compelling evidence of lack. I find that: In addition, I plan to present some fresh findings in my next post that, like Ozier’s, seem to make alternative theories harder to fashion (done). Found inside – Page 447According to GiveWell.org in 2016, three of the most effective and impactful charities are: Å  Against Malaria Foundation Å  Deworm the World Initiative Å  ... The figure below constitutes part of the Campbell review’s analysis of the impact of mass administration of albendazole (for soil-transmitted worms) on children’s weight (adapted from Figure 6 in the initial version): Each row distills results from one experiment; the “Total” row at the bottom draws the results together. You may even wonder why our list hasn’t changed much. We are recommending that Good Ventures make larger grants to top charities. HKI (http://www.hki.org/) is a large organization with multiple programs focused on reducing malnutrition and averting blindness and poor vision. Prior to 2015, it had completed (large-scale) distributions in two countries, Malawi and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). We estimate that non-Good Ventures donors will give approximately $27 million between now and the start of June 2017; we expect to refresh our recommendations to donors in mid-June. The survey found middling coverage results. The Vietnam results indicate that Deworm the World is using similar monitoring processes in new countries as it has in Kenya and India and that results in Vietnam have been reasonably strong. [1] Croke et al. The descriptions in the table are based on the descriptions Deworm the World used, though there was some variation across reports and we have modified them slightly for clarity. We believe that GiveDirectly has been effective at delivering cash to low-income households. For example, it can contribute to a charity’s ability to experiment, expand, and ultimately have greater room for more funding over the long run. The END Fund has funded SCI, Deworm the World, and Sightsavers. I took him on my bicycle and brought him home. We have reviewed documents from HKI, had a number of conversations with their staff, and spent three days meeting with HKI and observing a VAS campaign in Guinea. The post Deworming might have huge impact, but might have close to zero impact appeared first on The GiveWell Blog. This estimate is based on (a) a list of deworming funding opportunities that the END Fund had identified as of October and its expectation of identifying additional opportunities over the course of the year (excluding opportunities to grant funding to Deworm the World, SCI, or Sightsavers, which we count in those organizations’ room for more funding); and (b) our rough estimate of how much funding the END Fund will raise. We then discuss our recommendation for all other donors. To dig in more, see the Worms authors’ reply and the posts by Berk Ozler, Chris Blattman, and my former colleagues Michael Clemens and Justin Sandefur. Jael, a 29-year-old mother of four who owns a few acres of land where she grazes cattle and raises chickens, said two of her children have also become sick from the deworming treatment. But if I parry specific criticisms, I don’t dispel a more general one. The quality of the monitoring that we saw from Deworm the World improved in 2015. The white 0’s and 1’s next to the group 1 and 2 markers show which were deemed to need praziquantel, with 1 indicating need: Most of the 1’s appear in the southern delta and along the shore of Lake Victoria. We named New Incentives a top charity this year after considering many factors, including the results of a high-quality study of its program. We believe that the remaining funding gaps offer donors outstanding opportunities to accomplish good with their donations. The Adverse Event Protocol contains these elements: Kids’ safety and health will always come first and that is why the government of Kenya has implemented this national program. But they would make GiveWell’s ~99% discount—which can compensate for 100-fold (10000%) exaggeration—look conservative. I will explain why below. Please make checks payable to GiveWell. Found inside – Page 237Deworm the World Initiative: http://www.evidenceaction.org/, “Deworm the World Initiative (DtWI), Led by Evidence Action,” GiveWell, December 2014, ... Then they analyzed the data afresh with their preferred methods. Getting kids to school is only a means to other ends—at best. We estimate that the END Fund could productively use between $10 million (50% confidence) and $22 million (5% confidence) in the next year to expand its work on deworming. If AMF did displace a large amount of funding which would otherwise have gone to nets, that could make donations applied to these distributions considerably less cost-effective. Overall, AMF is the best giving opportunity we are currently aware of. Average elevation was essentially indistinguishable between the Worms at Work treatment and control groups. Because we expect that there are diminishing returns to funding, we would guess that the cost-effectiveness of a charity’s funding gap falls as it receives more funding. Deworm the World Initiative - $70. Continued refinement of the concept of “room for more funding.” We’ve tried to create a much more systematic and detailed room for more funding analysis, because the stakes of this analysis have become higher due to (a) increased room for more funding across the board and (b) increased interest from Good Ventures in providing major support. Unfortunately, the benefits that dominate our cost-effectiveness calculations manifest over the long run, as treated children grow up. It is possible that because additional funding would go to support additional treatments in states where programs already operate, the cost to deliver these marginal treatments would be lower. History []. AMF and Deworm the World We understand Deworm the World’s funding gap is driven by two primary factors. An economy with frequent large recessions, a pronounced business cycle, very high or variable inflation, or frequent financial crises would be considered economically unstable. note that the estimated attendance effect in the combined years analysis is larger than in either of the underlying years, and they suggest that the change is due to the inclusion of a before-after comparison for Group 2 (which switched from control in year one to treatment in year two) in the purportedly experimental analysis. But what if all the studies before you contain “high risk of bias”? Last year, we wrote about the tradeoff between Good Ventures accomplishing more short-term good by filling GiveWell’s top charities’ funding gaps and the long-term good of saving money for other opportunities (as well as the good of not crowding out other donors, who, by nature of their smaller scale of giving, may have fewer strong opportunities). I [Open Philanthropy Project Executive Director Holden Karnofsky] believe that the payoff of all of this work is the ability to identify ideas that are exciting for reasons that require unusual amounts of thought and knowledge to truly appreciate. We have asked HKI to prioritize use of GiveWell-directed funding in countries where it expects to cause additional rounds of VAS to occur. Based on that study, we estimate that New Incentives increases the use of incentivized vaccines by 22 percentage points. They are not ranked, and are listed in alphabetical order. I calculate that 27% of children in the Worms sample had moderate or serious infections, going by World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines, which can be viewed conservatively as double the 2–16% Croke et al. We are excited that we were able to commission Mr. Kushner and Mr. Langat to visit the Deworm the World Initiative on the ground in Kenya. Still, the new graph casts doubt on the proposition that the campaign brought a big break with the past. Since 2014, we have supported governments to deliver over 1 billion treatments, which are proven to improve the nutrition, cognition, school attendance, and long-term economic prospects of children. Our overall recommendation of deworming relies heavily on a randomized controlled trial (RCT) (the type of study we consider to be the “gold standard” in terms of causal attribution) first written about in Miguel and Kremer 2004 and followed by 10-year follow up data reported in Baird et al. Because aspirin and acetaminophen are similar in their analgesic and antipyretic effects, the low-quality evidence regarding the potential harms of aspirin does not preclude a strong recommendation for acetaminophen. Further, we don’t know of any evidence that would allow us to disconfirm the possibility that the relationship between worm infection rates and the effectiveness of deworming is nonlinear, and thus that many children in the Miguel and Kremer trial were above a clinically relevant “threshold” of infection that few children treated by our recommended charities are above. We’ve considered whether to recommend funding for an additional study to replicate Baird et al. This post aims to clarify how GiveWell thinks about different giving options and their suitability for different types of donors. This allocation comes from a belief that, at these margins, it is difficult to distinguish between the quality of AMF and SCI’s funding gaps. No, no, no, I will not take it.’” A teacher at Gagra Primary School recalled a 2013 deworming in which about six of his students fainted, having taken PZQ. Because we do not expect AMF’s remaining ~$27.5 million Execution Level 1 funding gap to be fully filled, we rank it #1 and recommend that donors give to AMF. If you’re using our research to guide your giving, we hope you’ll also consider supporting GiveWell. Beyond that general concern, I did not find specific evidence that would cast grave doubt on whole deworming campaigns. GiveDirectly SCI has conducted studies to determine whether its programs have reached a large proportion of children targeted. US and Dutch donors are able to take tax deductions for donations to GiveWell to the extent permitted by law. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons, DtWI Rajasthan 2012 coverage data for anganwadi, DtWI Rajasthan 2012 coverage data for schools, Schools that had officials attend official training, Teachers who followed the correct recording protocol, Teachers who told children to chew tablets before swallowing, Teachers who administered the deworming tablets after the children ate their meals, Teachers who identified sick children before administering the tablet, Schools where the monitor observed cases of adverse events, Children who were aware of the purpose of the tablet, Schools where drugs were available by deworming day, Schools where drugs were exposed to direct sunlight in storage. But neither defense gets at what matters most for GiveWell, which is whether small short-term benefits make big long-term earnings gains implausible. As in the previous post, I conclude that the GiveWell approach is reasonable. AMF (againstmalaria.com) provides funding for long-lasting insecticide-treated net distributions (for protection against malaria) in developing countries. It is possible that some additional funds given to support Deworm the World could effectively lead to additional funds for a non-Deworm the World project due to fungibility. Aiken et al. SCI has conducted studies in about two-thirds of the countries it works in to determine whether its programs have reached a large proportion of children targeted. The first million dollars to a charity can have a very different impact from, e.g., the 20th million dollars. Hollister said “there is the potential that there could be some side effects because of the medication, which can happen especially to children with very large worm loads, for example stomach pains.”. By our estimation, about a third of this would be used to fund other NTD programs. (Otherwise, as explained below, Deworm the World would be ranked higher.) The hookworm eradication effort in the American South did not coincide with breaks in long-term trends that would invite eradication as the explanation. What do those studies tell us about the effectiveness of deworming campaigns today, from Liberia to India? These donors may want to compare alternative opportunities to GiveWell’s top charities. The “1-2% chance” doesn’t mean that we think that there’s a 98-99% chance that deworming programs have no effect at all, but that we think it’s appropriate to use a 1-2% multiplier compared to the impact found in the original trials – this could be thought of as assigning some chance that deworming programs have no impact, and some chance that the impact exists but will be smaller than was measured in those trials. Some GiveWell staff cite Banerjee and Duflo’s 2011 book, Poor Economics, as a catalyst for their interest in working in global health and poverty alleviation. We believe that HKI’s VAS work is highly likely to be constrained by funding next year. Banerjee, Duflo, and Kremer’s work to understand the global poor has influenced our research in myriad ways over the years. We completed investigations of vitamin A supplementation and maternal and neonatal tetanus immunization campaigns. It targets extremely low-income households. These reports contain all of the questions and results: GiveWell, aka The Clear Fund (a tax-exempt 501(c)(3) public charity), was founded in 2007. GiveDirectly We continued to analyze the complex evidence base for deworming (treating intestinal parasites), the program implemented by four out of our nine top charities. This is the approach the Open Philanthropy Project, which was incubated at GiveWell, has taken, and we believe doing this well requires a lot of work, as the Open Philanthropy Project discussed in a blog post last year (emphasis original): Aim for deep understanding of the key issues, literatures, organizations, and people around a cause, either by putting in a great deal of work or by forming a high-trust relationship with someone else who can. Instead, we solicited applications from organizations that we viewed as contenders for recommendations. Malaria Consortium-trained health workers go door-to-door during malaria season to provide young children with medication to prevent malaria. See our: Our latest cost-effectiveness analysis of our top charities. We believe that HKI is currently in a better position to assess cost-effectiveness of the opportunities it has than we are, while we will seek to maximize cost-effectiveness in the longer run by assessing HKI’s track record of cost-effectiveness and comparing that to the cost-effectiveness of other top charities. For further discussion, see our previous post on allocating discretionary funding. Deworm the World did not include these costs in its list of ways it might spend money and we did not recognize that they were not built into the budget. We estimate that SCI could productively use about $30 million more than it expects to receive to deliver treatments to school-aged children over the next three years. For example, a donor might know someone who is starting a charity and feel, based on their research, that supporting their project at an early stage might be a particularly leveraged way to do good. Mr. Kushner’s article follows. When gaps have the same “Priority,” this indicates that they are tied. It has invested heavily in self-evaluation from the start, scaled up quickly, and communicated with us clearly. Kenya director for Evidence Action’s Deworm the World Initiative Thomas Kisimbi said that while the program does allow for extra drugs to be administered to students who may have missed it, he said the program doesn’t sanction teachers’ administering the pill to children who they believe missed it the first time due to objections by them or their parents. More plainly, counties with more worms in kids had fewer kids in school. The lack of baseline infection data for the control group prevents me from distinguishing between these theories. Overall, the case for our top charities is stronger than it was in past years. We are planning to hold a conference call at 5:30pm ET/2:30pm PT on Thursday, December 1 to discuss our recommendations and answer questions. Footnotes for this post can be accessed here. You can have a major, positive impact today by choosing to support organizations backed by strong evidence: our top charities. “We want this program to go on 10 years, 20 years beyond the [involvement] of Evidence Action and we want the government to be able to take greater responsibility over the program,” he said. 2015, we would have noted that estimated cross-school externalities remain statistically significant in the 0-3km range. We don’t think the two replications bear on the most important parts of the case we see for deworming. This book describes a cost-effective approach to the control of these infections, based on the use of periodic parasitological surveys of school population samples. It means finding people who are (or can be) maximally well-informed about issues we’ll never have the time to engage with fully, and finding ways to form high-trust relationships with them. We believe No Lean Season is the top charity where there is the strongest case to be made for “upside”; our cost-effectiveness analysis may not capture the potential impact of scaling a new program that could lead to greater visibility and funding for a novel type of program.

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